BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Fox Sparrow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Fox Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 753% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+753%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Fox Sparrow has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 753% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Fox Sparrow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Fox Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.59 (95% range 0.25–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–0.9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Fox Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.59 (95% range 0.25–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.560.220.91
20260.570.230.91
20270.580.230.92
20280.580.240.93
20290.590.250.93

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Fox Sparrow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TincupCOLORADO132024
Uintah NfUTAH131994
GooseberryUTAH72024
Lost Cr. ResUTAH72015
Dolores RivCOLORADO62024
Weston Pass 2COLORADO62024
Red CliffCOLORADO52024
CastletonCOLORADO52024
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO52019
Logan CanyonUTAH52019
SoapstoneUTAH42024
BufordCOLORADO32022
Lost LakeCOLORADO32024
Fox CreekCOLORADO32011
Weston PassCOLORADO32000
Rifle FallsCOLORADO32021
Heber Mtn.UTAH32024
Fox ParkWYOMING32024
ColonaCOLORADO22012
ParlinCOLORADO22023
Wilson CreekCOLORADO22024
UncompahgreCOLORADO22023
DoylevilleCOLORADO22023
Lake CityCOLORADO22003
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.