BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Fox Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Fox Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-7%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Fox Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Fox Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Fox Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Fox Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19932026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.040.000.18
20230.030.000.17
20240.030.000.17
20250.030.000.17
20260.020.000.17

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Fox Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Heron LakeMAINE82003
Priestly Br.MAINE72001
Clayton Lake 2MAINE32013
Wilson MillsMAINE22021
Clayton LakeMAINE22001
Seboomook LkMAINE12010
WinnMAINE11996
Big TwentyMAINE12006
Weeks BrookMAINE12008
YankeetuladiMAINE12009
NesowadnehunMAINE12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.