BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forster's Tern In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Forster's Tern in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+136%Since 1970
34Routes In Region
54Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Forster's Tern has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forster's Tern in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 197% by 2029 — from 0.91 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+197%Change by 2029
2.7Projected 2029 index
0.00–6.595% range
±60%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.70.006.5
20262.70.006.5
20272.70.006.5
20282.70.006.5
20292.70.006.5

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Forster's Tern in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
CreoleLOUISIANA611987
Oyster LakeTEXAS452023
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA152008
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA142017
JuniorLOUISIANA101991
WoodlawnLOUISIANA102019
Forked IslandLOUISIANA102024
Grand IsleLOUISIANA92018
Loyola BeachTEXAS82005
BaysideTEXAS82010
Port AcresTEXAS82012
GlencoeLOUISIANA62014
StowellTEXAS62023
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS62023
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA51973
Hinkles FerTEXAS52006
Bayside 2TEXAS42004
Bayside 3TEXAS42024
IndianolaTEXAS32024
Padre Island PaisTEXAS32015
HackberryLOUISIANA22016
KaplanLOUISIANA21999
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA22011
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA22010
WinnieTEXAS21989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.