BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forster's Tern In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Forster's Tern in Southeastern Coastal Plain has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-74%Since 1969
22Routes In Region
54Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Forster's Tern has fallen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forster's Tern in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±258%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028
0.07Projected 2028 index
0.00–0.2095% range
±258%Backtest error
19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.080.000.20
20250.080.000.20
20260.080.000.20
20270.070.000.20
20280.070.000.20

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Forster's Tern in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Santa RosaFLORIDA171991
Cross CityFLORIDA152015
Alabama PtALABAMA81997
St Vincent IFLORIDA82010
Alligator PtFLORIDA71993
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA52013
DarienGEORGIA31973
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA32023
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA32017
Milltail CrNORTH-CAROLINA32022
MattamuskeetNORTH-CAROLINA32019
Port St JoeFLORIDA22007
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA22000
Dauphin IsALABAMA11988
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA12005
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA12016
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA12009
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA11992
KellerGEORGIA11994
NewportNORTH-CAROLINA12023
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA12009
PungoVIRGINIA11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.