Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Forster's Tern In Northern Rockies

Forster's Tern in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-55%Since 1981
16Routes In Region
39Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Forster's Tern has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Forster's Tern in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±182%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029
0.04Projected 2029 index
0.000.1195% range
±182%Backtest error
19792029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.040.000.12
20260.040.000.12
20270.040.000.12
20280.040.000.11
20290.040.000.11

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Forster's Tern in Northern Rockies.
Neponset ResUTAH72018
MidvaleWYOMING61996
Red RockMONTANA41994
RandolphUTAH32024
KalispellMONTANA21990
AugustaMONTANA21982
Pablo Res.MONTANA22012
AlpineWYOMING21999
CentervilleIDAHO12011
Crane CreekIDAHO11989
FeathervilleIDAHO12010
Saleratus CrUTAH12003
NowoodWYOMING12000
FontenelleWYOMING12017
HarmonyWYOMING12023
SeedskadeeWYOMING12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.