BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Field Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Field Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
396Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Field Sparrow has fallen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Field Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 57% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 57% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.10.325.9
20272.90.155.7
20282.80.005.5
20292.60.005.4
20302.40.005.2

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coal RunOHIO441992
Corryton RdTENNESSEE412019
BlacksburgVIRGINIA282025
NicutWEST-VIRGINIA272025
NeedmorePENNSYLVANIA261991
Nat TunnelVIRGINIA252025
HixWEST-VIRGINIA232025
SturgillsNORTH-CAROLINA222025
Doubling GapPENNSYLVANIA221977
Lost RiverWEST-VIRGINIA222025
Mt StormWEST-VIRGINIA211975
Pine Gr MillPENNSYLVANIA202025
MartinsburgWEST-VIRGINIA202025
DuvallPENNSYLVANIA192021
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA192025
Mt OliveTENNESSEE192024
Jones GapTENNESSEE192019
McdonaldWEST-VIRGINIA192023
StevensonALABAMA182024
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY181995
StonecreekOHIO182025
Star TanneryVIRGINIA182025
Pt PleasantWEST-VIRGINIA182025
LakeviewALABAMA172025
GeslingKENTUCKY171973

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.