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Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Field Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Field Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
395Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Field Sparrow has fallen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Field Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.10.385.8
20262.90.205.7
20272.80.025.5
20282.60.005.3
20292.40.005.1

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coal RunOHIO441992
Corryton RdTENNESSEE412019
NeedmorePENNSYLVANIA261991
BlacksburgVIRGINIA262024
Nat TunnelVIRGINIA242024
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA232021
BebeeWEST-VIRGINIA232024
StonecreekOHIO222024
Doubling GapPENNSYLVANIA221977
Mt StormWEST-VIRGINIA211975
ShanghaiWEST-VIRGINIA202022
DuvallPENNSYLVANIA192021
Mt OliveTENNESSEE192024
Jones GapTENNESSEE192019
HixWEST-VIRGINIA192024
McdonaldWEST-VIRGINIA192023
StevensonALABAMA182024
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY181995
SturgillsNORTH-CAROLINA182024
MartinsburgWEST-VIRGINIA182024
GeslingKENTUCKY171973
KehoeKENTUCKY171992
OmegaOHIO172024
RectorPENNSYLVANIA171977
Star TanneryVIRGINIA172024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.