BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Field Sparrow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Field Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-91%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Field Sparrow has collapsed in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Field Sparrow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±196%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±196%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±196%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.004.2
20260.000.004.2
20270.000.004.2
20280.000.004.2
20290.000.004.2

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PawpawTENNESSEE152012
DundeeMISSISSIPPI132011
HarrisburgARKANSAS82012
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI82024
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE72023
BardwellKENTUCKY62003
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE62023
FreetownLOUISIANA41978
RoselandLOUISIANA41971
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS32021
South BendARKANSAS21982
AugustaARKANSAS22001
MaynardARKANSAS22024
UlmARKANSAS21994
Augusta 2ARKANSAS22011
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY22024
RayvilleLOUISIANA21973
IsolaMISSISSIPPI22021
KennettMISSOURI22024
HaytiMISSOURI22021
EudoraARKANSAS11982
HughesARKANSAS11996
WhittonARKANSAS11991
SaffellARKANSAS12019
WilsonARKANSAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.