BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Field Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Field Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+115%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Field Sparrow has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 115% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Field Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.31.03.5
20272.31.13.5
20282.31.13.5
20292.31.13.5
20302.31.13.5

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA472015
Hehn DrawMONTANA392025
SavageMONTANA272025
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA272019
HampshireWYOMING261999
Miles CityMONTANA232025
CusterMONTANA222022
Custer 2MONTANA222025
JordanMONTANA212024
PowdervilleMONTANA212025
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA182015
Cabin CreekMONTANA142025
ForsythMONTANA132023
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA122025
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA112019
BrandenbergMONTANA102025
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA102004
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA102015
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA92011
LeroyMONTANA82025
LindsayMONTANA72024
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA72011
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA72014
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA62025
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA52014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.