BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Field Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Field Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+89%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Field Sparrow has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Field Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.993.4
20262.21.03.4
20272.21.03.5
20282.31.03.5
20292.31.13.5

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA472015
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA272019
HampshireWYOMING261999
CusterMONTANA222022
JordanMONTANA212024
Hehn DrawMONTANA202024
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA182015
Miles CityMONTANA172024
BrandenbergMONTANA162019
Harland FlatWYOMING161990
Custer 2MONTANA152024
RecluseWYOMING142022
SavageMONTANA132021
ForsythMONTANA132023
Cabin CreekMONTANA112024
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA112019
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA102004
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA102015
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA92011
Soda WellWYOMING82024
LindsayMONTANA72024
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA72011
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA72014
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA52024
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA52023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.