BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Field Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Field Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Field Sparrow has fallen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Field Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 74% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Field Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 74% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.004.4
20261.70.004.3
20271.50.004.1
20281.40.004.0
20291.30.003.9

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Field Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK272024
NaplesNEW-YORK232024
West SenecaNEW-YORK202004
MacdougallNEW-YORK172024
Harris HillNEW-YORK152009
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK142024
N VictoryNEW-YORK121972
WaylandOHIO122017
LucerneOHIO122024
BranchportNEW-YORK112024
CastileNEW-YORK112024
OrleansNEW-YORK92024
RushvilleNEW-YORK82024
ArgyleNEW-YORK82024
GarrettsvileOHIO81991
RhinebeckNEW-YORK72024
CayugaNEW-YORK72024
SalemNEW-YORK72024
AusterlitzNEW-YORK62024
SheridanNEW-YORK62024
ByronNEW-YORK62024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK62024
New SomersetOHIO61993
HebronOHIO62024
HiramOHIO62021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.