BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ferruginous Hawk In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Ferruginous Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-9%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ferruginous Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ferruginous Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2022TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2022 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ferruginous Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702022
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20180.030.000.08
20190.030.000.08
20200.030.000.08
20210.030.000.07
20220.030.000.07

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Ferruginous Hawk in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St JohnKANSAS51982
Crescent LkNEBRASKA32002
AshlandKANSAS21971
GordonNEBRASKA22006
MullenNEBRASKA22017
AlbertKANSAS11981
GrayKANSAS11974
LeovilleKANSAS12013
JewellKANSAS11990
PhillipsburgKANSAS11988
GoveKANSAS12017
HopewellKANSAS12006
RexfordKANSAS12015
StrattonNEBRASKA11985
KennedyNEBRASKA11982
RinggoldNEBRASKA12006
BrownleeNEBRASKA12002
Eagle CityOKLAHOMA11988
TegardenOKLAHOMA11990
RosstonOKLAHOMA11990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.