BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ferruginous Hawk In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Ferruginous Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+9%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ferruginous Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ferruginous Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 161% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.14–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+161%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.7495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±107.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.130.73
20260.440.140.74
20270.440.140.74
20280.440.140.74
20290.440.140.74

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Ferruginous Hawk in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HudsonCOLORADO81999
PinneoCOLORADO42019
LeotiKANSAS42018
MarslandNEBRASKA42019
Mica ButteCOLORADO31981
Gordon CreekCOLORADO32005
CrowleyCOLORADO32024
Last Chance 2COLORADO32022
StonehamCOLORADO32021
Prospect ValCOLORADO31993
NunnCOLORADO32018
ClovisNEW-MEXICO32006
LamarCOLORADO22017
GilpinCOLORADO22024
CheyenneCOLORADO22022
PritchettCOLORADO22017
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO22023
ArsenalCOLORADO22013
WinonaKANSAS22015
BenkelmanNEBRASKA22019
FarleyNEW-MEXICO22017
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO22017
RosebudNEW-MEXICO22021
HardestyOKLAHOMA21991
HookerOKLAHOMA22011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.