BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ferruginous Hawk In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Ferruginous Hawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+55%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ferruginous Hawk has risen sharply in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Ferruginous Hawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 63% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.10
20260.030.000.10
20270.030.000.10
20280.020.000.10
20290.020.000.10

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Ferruginous Hawk in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BlancaCOLORADO31986
ComoCOLORADO32023
CorreoNEW-MEXICO31976
MoscaCOLORADO22024
AntonitoCOLORADO22001
Horse SpgsNEW-MEXICO22023
DragertonUTAH22011
JensenUTAH22024
ClevelandUTAH21994
WestwaterUTAH22024
Rose WellsARIZONA11975
Many FarmsARIZONA11996
SeligmanARIZONA12016
YampaCOLORADO12010
ColonaCOLORADO11993
MoffatCOLORADO12024
TarryallCOLORADO12010
San LuisCOLORADO12023
BasinCOLORADO12016
LudlowCOLORADO12001
MesitaCOLORADO12017
CrownpointNEW-MEXICO11979
TorreonNEW-MEXICO12008
PecosNEW-MEXICO12006
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.