BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1999.

11×Since 1999TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1999.

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 3.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 3.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19962029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.62.710
20266.72.811
20276.82.911
20287.03.111
20297.13.211

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EstherLOUISIANA152024
IndianolaTEXAS132024
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS122024
MauriceLOUISIANA102024
Lag AtascosaTEXAS102024
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA82011
Vinton 2LOUISIANA82024
Rock IslandTEXAS72024
Bayside 3TEXAS62024
McfaddinTEXAS62016
KaplanLOUISIANA52023
RichardLOUISIANA52024
Loyola BeachTEXAS52009
HackberryLOUISIANA42016
GlencoeLOUISIANA42018
Grand IsleLOUISIANA42019
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA42021
Forked IslandLOUISIANA42024
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA42011
BaysideTEXAS42010
Moon Lake 2TEXAS42023
Goliad PrairieTEXAS32016
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA22024
WoodlawnLOUISIANA22021
PetronilaTEXAS22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.