BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1999.

11×Since 1999TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1999.

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 5.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 3.3–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 5.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 3.3–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19962030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.62.810
20276.72.911
20286.93.011
20297.03.111
20307.13.311

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lag AtascosaTEXAS262025
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS162025
Vinton 2LOUISIANA132025
IndianolaTEXAS132024
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA122025
Bayside 3TEXAS112025
MauriceLOUISIANA102024
StowellTEXAS92025
EstherLOUISIANA82025
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA82011
PetronilaTEXAS82025
Forked IslandLOUISIANA62025
McfaddinTEXAS62016
KaplanLOUISIANA52023
RichardLOUISIANA52025
Loyola BeachTEXAS52009
HackberryLOUISIANA42016
GlencoeLOUISIANA42018
Grand IsleLOUISIANA42019
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA42021
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA42011
Oyster LakeTEXAS42025
BaysideTEXAS42010
Moon Lake 2TEXAS42023
Goliad PrairieTEXAS32016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.