BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 2002.

18×Since 2002TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 2002.

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 8.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 5.1–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±178.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±178.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 8.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 5.1–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±178.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20002029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025103.817
2026114.117
2027114.418
2028114.818
2029125.118

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ProgresoTEXAS232011
EncinalTEXAS212010
George WestTEXAS192024
RandadoTEXAS152024
HondoTEXAS142024
La PryorTEXAS102010
HeidelbergTEXAS102024
Encinal 2TEXAS92024
RaymondvilleTEXAS82024
GuerraTEXAS82023
RachalTEXAS72023
KingsvilleTEXAS72024
El SauzTEXAS72023
SejitaTEXAS72024
MillettTEXAS72012
Millett 2TEXAS62024
Mirando CityTEXAS52024
Catarina 2TEXAS52017
CatarinaTEXAS32010
DilleyTEXAS32024
Agua NuevaTEXAS22023
Catarina 3TEXAS22023
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS22010
LaredoTEXAS12019
Pedro CreekTEXAS12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.