BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 2003.

18×Since 2003TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 2003.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 87% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 6.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+87%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.2–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 87% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 6.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20012029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.35.19.5
20267.55.49.7
20277.85.610.0
20288.15.910
20298.36.211

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RodeoNEW-MEXICO232024
ComstockTEXAS212023
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO172024
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO162021
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO142019
CanutilloTEXAS142024
GageNEW-MEXICO132023
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO112023
RoswellNEW-MEXICO102023
GirvinTEXAS102024
Devils R CynTEXAS102024
Van HornTEXAS102024
PumpvilleTEXAS102024
PresidioTEXAS92023
Sierra BlancTEXAS92024
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS92024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO82024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO72023
Salt FlatTEXAS72015
ToyahvaleTEXAS62019
MarathonTEXAS62023
OzonaTEXAS52021
LongfellowTEXAS42023
AltudaTEXAS42022
Ft. DavisTEXAS42023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.