BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 2003.

18×Since 2003TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 2003.

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 6.0–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.0–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 6.0–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20012030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.25.09.5
20277.55.39.7
20287.75.59.9
20298.05.810
20308.26.010

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO162021
Devils R CynTEXAS162025
RoswellNEW-MEXICO152025
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO152025
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO142019
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO142025
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO142025
RodeoNEW-MEXICO132025
CanutilloTEXAS132025
Sierra BlancTEXAS112025
PresidioTEXAS92025
Van HornTEXAS82025
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS82025
GirvinTEXAS72025
Salt FlatTEXAS72015
Ozona 2TEXAS62025
ToyahvaleTEXAS62019
Ft. DavisTEXAS62025
LongfellowTEXAS52025
OzonaTEXAS52021
GageNEW-MEXICO42025
ComstockTEXAS42025
AltudaTEXAS42022
MarathonTEXAS42025
CastolonTEXAS32018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.