BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 727% on the route-weighted index since 2005.

+727%Since 2005TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 727% on the route-weighted index since 2005.

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 114% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 1.9–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+114%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±123.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 114% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 1.9–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20032030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.81.56.2
20273.91.66.3
20284.01.76.4
20294.21.86.5
20304.31.96.6

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull ValleyARIZONA262024
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA172025
AmadoARIZONA132025
PatagoniaARIZONA92025
Clay SpringARIZONA52025
WilliamsARIZONA22025
Bartlett ResARIZONA22017
RedingtonARIZONA22025
PrescottARIZONA12025
PomereneARIZONA12025
San SimonARIZONA12015
MaineARIZONA12021
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA12025
Forest LakesARIZONA12021
PinetopARIZONA12022
SahuaritaARIZONA12021
McnealARIZONA12025
Happy JackARIZONA12013
Carr MtnARIZONA12022
SprucedaleARIZONA12017
PortalARIZONA12025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12025
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12022
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.