BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 318% on the route-weighted index since 2006.

+318%Since 2006TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 318% on the route-weighted index since 2006.

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 129% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+129%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.8–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±136.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 129% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20042029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025103.916
2026104.216
2027104.417
2028114.617
2029114.817

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA442010
HopeARIZONA412009
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA262018
Cactus ForestARIZONA242024
OatmanARIZONA232024
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA232013
Jean LakeNEVADA212013
Hope 2ARIZONA182019
BrawleyCALIFORNIA182012
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA172024
Red Rock 2ARIZONA172024
Palo VerdeARIZONA152013
New RiverARIZONA142016
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA122024
ArabyARIZONA92023
Calif CityCALIFORNIA92015
NilandCALIFORNIA92024
LagunaARIZONA82023
Cibola LakeARIZONA72024
Ajo 2ARIZONA72022
Organ PipeARIZONA72023
Lone PineCALIFORNIA72024
BeattyNEVADA72024
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA52016
Willow Springs 2CALIFORNIA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.