BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Coastal California has surged: up 170× on the route-weighted index since 2006.

170×Since 2006TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Coastal California: up 170× on the route-weighted index since 2006.

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Coastal California is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 19–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Coastal California is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 19–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20042029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191522
2026201623
2027211724
2028211825
2029221926

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OrlandCALIFORNIA522022
WestleyCALIFORNIA422024
Hollister 2CALIFORNIA402024
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA392011
HollisterCALIFORNIA382011
HughsonCALIFORNIA372024
Collegeville 2CALIFORNIA362023
Tracy 2CALIFORNIA332024
CohassetCALIFORNIA322024
MorenoCALIFORNIA302024
CoalingaCALIFORNIA302022
GreenfieldCALIFORNIA302024
Ora LomaCALIFORNIA302024
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA292024
SisquocCALIFORNIA292014
Red BluffCALIFORNIA282024
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA282024
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA262023
JacumbaCALIFORNIA262024
CrestonCALIFORNIA242024
PolomaCALIFORNIA242024
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA222024
OrovilleCALIFORNIA202024
OnoCALIFORNIA182012
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA172024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.