BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Coastal California has surged: up 168× on the route-weighted index since 2006.

168×Since 2006TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Coastal California: up 168× on the route-weighted index since 2006.

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Coastal California is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 18–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Coastal California is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 18–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20042030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026191523
2027201624
2028201724
2029211725
2030221826

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WestleyCALIFORNIA532025
OrlandCALIFORNIA522022
MorenoCALIFORNIA412025
Hollister 2CALIFORNIA402024
HughsonCALIFORNIA392025
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA392011
HollisterCALIFORNIA382011
Collegeville 2CALIFORNIA362023
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA342025
Tracy 2CALIFORNIA332024
CoalingaCALIFORNIA302022
SisquocCALIFORNIA292014
CohassetCALIFORNIA272025
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA272025
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA262025
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA262023
Mark WestCALIFORNIA262025
Red BluffCALIFORNIA242025
RiovistaCALIFORNIA242025
CrestonCALIFORNIA242024
GreenfieldCALIFORNIA242025
PolomaCALIFORNIA242024
LockwoodCALIFORNIA192025
OnoCALIFORNIA182012
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA172025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.