BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 805% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+805%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
201Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 805% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 108% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.23–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+108%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±117.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 108% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.23–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±117.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.144.0
20262.10.174.1
20272.10.194.1
20282.20.214.1
20292.20.234.1

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA342011
Alabama PtALABAMA232003
LovedaleFLORIDA202011
BrundidgeALABAMA162021
Santa RosaFLORIDA122003
ElamvilleALABAMA112024
New HopeFLORIDA112011
Defuniak SprFLORIDA102017
CyburMISSISSIPPI102019
CottontonALABAMA82024
BloctonALABAMA82024
BillingsleyALABAMA72022
NewtonALABAMA72024
New EllentonSOUTH-CAROLINA72018
WhitehallALABAMA62024
Cross CityFLORIDA62023
BickhamLOUISIANA62024
MaconMISSISSIPPI62024
NixvilleSOUTH-CAROLINA62009
CastleberryALABAMA52024
Broad BranchFLORIDA52024
HilliardFLORIDA52023
ApalachicolaFLORIDA52009
FitzgeraldGEORGIA52023
NashvilleGEORGIA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.