BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 640% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

+640%Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 640% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 119% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.4–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±158.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+119%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±158.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 119% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.4–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±158.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19982029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.41.25.7
20263.51.25.8
20273.61.35.8
20283.61.45.9
20293.71.46.0

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KelsoARKANSAS112016
Augusta 2ARKANSAS102016
KeystoneLOUISIANA102013
SaffellARKANSAS92019
HaytiMISSOURI92021
MayflowerLOUISIANA82024
FloydLOUISIANA72021
KennettMISSOURI72024
IsolaMISSISSIPPI62022
DellARKANSAS52024
BrousvilleLOUISIANA52024
MoonMISSISSIPPI52019
MaynardARKANSAS42024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA42024
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA42019
Rayville 2LOUISIANA42024
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI42011
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI42023
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE42023
EnglandARKANSAS32024
UlmARKANSAS32024
BelairLOUISIANA32010
Baton RougeLOUISIANA32022
BlodgettMISSOURI32024
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.