BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 782% on the route-weighted index since 2003.

+782%Since 2003TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 782% on the route-weighted index since 2003.

Eurasian Collared-Dove In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 126% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.39–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±254.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+126%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.39–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±254.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 126% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.39–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±254.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20012029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.252.8
20261.60.282.9
20271.60.322.9
20281.70.353.0
20291.70.393.0

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PocolaOKLAHOMA292016
Liberty HillTEXAS102023
AthensTEXAS72024
Mt. SelmanTEXAS72016
Smyrna 2TEXAS72023
Coal HillARKANSAS62023
IndianolaOKLAHOMA62024
Old MiloARKANSAS52009
MassardARKANSAS52022
HavanaARKANSAS52019
ZwolleLOUISIANA42023
Big CedarOKLAHOMA42024
Mer RougeLOUISIANA32008
De QuincyLOUISIANA32019
Mount UnionLOUISIANA32024
WomackLOUISIANA32022
HaughtonLOUISIANA32024
CanadianOKLAHOMA32017
DibollTEXAS32024
Neches BithTEXAS32016
De RidderLOUISIANA22016
FishvilleLOUISIANA22016
ClayLOUISIANA22016
LongstreetLOUISIANA22023
Fort JessupLOUISIANA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.