BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 60× on the route-weighted index since 2003.

60×Since 2003TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
192Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 60× on the route-weighted index since 2003.

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 3.2–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 3.2–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20012029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.12.73.5
20263.32.83.7
20273.43.03.8
20283.53.13.9
20293.73.24.1

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
West LibertyIOWA282024
Red RockIOWA272024
MurdockNEBRASKA212024
RosamondILLINOIS192024
Rock ValleyIOWA152024
LincolnvilleKANSAS152024
RichlandNEBRASKA152024
Sioux CityIOWA142024
College Spgs 2IOWA142023
EllinorKANSAS132024
BeaucoupILLINOIS112024
SenecaKANSAS112022
SterlingILLINOIS102023
CameronILLINOIS92024
St MorganILLINOIS92022
Kahoka2MISSOURI92024
HolcombILLINOIS82024
BudaILLINOIS82023
BrooklynIOWA82022
MoreheadKANSAS82024
Mill CreekILLINOIS72024
StillwellILLINOIS72024
ClarksdaleILLINOIS72023
ClaytonILLINOIS72024
PrairieburgIOWA72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.