BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 49× on the route-weighted index since 2004.

49×Since 2004TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 49× on the route-weighted index since 2004.

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 8.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.2–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.2–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 8.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.2–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20022030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.26.612
20279.67.012
2028107.413
2029107.813
2030118.213

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MisslerKANSAS492019
SumnerNEBRASKA392025
KenesawNEBRASKA312025
GrayKANSAS282019
PetersburgNEBRASKA282025
CovertKANSAS242025
ArthurNEBRASKA232025
HawleyTEXAS222025
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA212025
HamptonNEBRASKA212025
CoopertonOKLAHOMA212025
BartleyNEBRASKA192025
KearneyNEBRASKA182025
BoelusNEBRASKA182022
SargentNEBRASKA172025
WellingtonKANSAS162025
Beaver CreekTEXAS162025
Berwyn 2NEBRASKA152025
CharlieTEXAS152025
ElginOKLAHOMA142016
RotanTEXAS142024
SicklesOKLAHOMA132021
Pear ValleyTEXAS132025
BelvidereNEBRASKA122025
BookerTEXAS122025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.