BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Eurasian Collared-Dove in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 38× on the route-weighted index since 2004.

38×Since 2004TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eurasian Collared-Dove has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 38× on the route-weighted index since 2004.

Eurasian Collared-Dove In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.5–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.5–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eurasian Collared-Dove in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.5–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.20022030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026127.617
2027138.117
2028138.618
2029149.018
2030149.519

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Eurasian Collared-Dove in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LingleWYOMING812024
PecosTEXAS702017
LamesaTEXAS642025
BrownsonNEBRASKA562025
Murray LakeNEBRASKA422025
MentoneTEXAS422015
TwichellTEXAS382025
HookerOKLAHOMA352025
FlaglerCOLORADO312025
BereaNEBRASKA292025
BennettCOLORADO282025
WakaTEXAS252025
Adams Co.COLORADO242022
BethuneCOLORADO212023
JulesburgCOLORADO212021
PanhandleTEXAS192025
GrigstonKANSAS182024
LeotiKANSAS182022
PaxtonNEBRASKA182016
HobbsNEW-MEXICO182025
ElbertCOLORADO172025
DaltonNEBRASKA162025
WaverlyCOLORADO152018
ClovisNEW-MEXICO152024
FlemingCOLORADO142025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.