BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Elegant Trogon In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Elegant Trogon in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-66%Since 1980
4Routes In Region
23Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Elegant Trogon has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Elegant Trogon in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028
0.01Projected 2028 index
0.00–0.1695% range
±67.2%Backtest error
19772028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.030.000.17
20250.030.000.17
20260.020.000.16
20270.020.000.16
20280.010.000.16

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Elegant Trogon in Sierra Madre Occidental.
PatagoniaARIZONA22019
Peña BlancaARIZONA12009
PortalARIZONA12023
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.