BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Meadowlark In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Southeastern Coastal Plain has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-85%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
318Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±137.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±137.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.003.7
20260.000.003.7
20270.000.003.7
20280.000.003.7
20290.000.003.7

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Boykin Ml PdSOUTH-CAROLINA571968
Rock ChapelALABAMA512024
WalthallMISSISSIPPI481987
PoplarvilleMISSISSIPPI401978
JarvisburgNORTH-CAROLINA331999
MaconMISSISSIPPI282024
Olive BranchMISSISSIPPI272001
New HollandSOUTH-CAROLINA252024
AberdeenMISSISSIPPI232024
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA222017
CalebeeALABAMA202024
Big SandyTENNESSEE202024
FairviewALABAMA192024
DibervilleMISSISSIPPI191987
BickhamLOUISIANA182024
NecaiseMISSISSIPPI182022
FoleyALABAMA171984
TupeloMISSISSIPPI172022
HumboldtTENNESSEE172024
BeargrassNORTH-CAROLINA161981
CornlandVIRGINIA152014
MansfieldTENNESSEE142024
Mt CarmelMISSISSIPPI132016
CyburMISSISSIPPI122019
RowlandNORTH-CAROLINA122024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.