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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Meadowlark In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-86%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 6.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 6.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.009.0
20260.420.008.2
20270.000.007.8
20280.000.007.8
20290.000.007.8

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CommerceMISSISSIPPI541993
SaffellARKANSAS452019
River RoadLOUISIANA432024
DeventerMISSOURI302024
KennettMISSOURI272024
PawpawTENNESSEE272012
KeystoneLOUISIANA232013
MaynardARKANSAS222024
AugustaARKANSAS202001
CarlisleLOUISIANA191988
DundeeMISSISSIPPI192022
Port AllenLOUISIANA162024
ConcordLOUISIANA152019
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI142011
HarrisburgARKANSAS122019
Morgan CityLOUISIANA121986
EnglandARKANSAS112024
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI112024
Augusta 2ARKANSAS102016
BrousvilleLOUISIANA102024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA92016
HaytiMISSOURI92021
DellARKANSAS72024
EudoraARKANSAS62024
West TylerARKANSAS61984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.