BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Meadowlark In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Prairie Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-75%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
157Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.10.006.8
20272.80.006.5
20282.50.006.3
20292.30.006.0
20302.00.005.7

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GuilfordILLINOIS492023
PackertownINDIANA422004
AnnatonWISCONSIN412025
Lake GalenaILLINOIS312021
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN271987
WiotaWISCONSIN262025
Packertown 2INDIANA232025
MiddleburyINDIANA212025
HolwayWISCONSIN211989
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN212025
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN202025
KendallWISCONSIN192025
N AndoverWISCONSIN172025
BismarkOHIO151995
Big RapidsMICHIGAN131990
FestinaIOWA122025
StratfordWISCONSIN122025
ViroquaWISCONSIN122024
DeckervilleMICHIGAN112024
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA112025
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA112025
OmroWISCONSIN112001
CascoWISCONSIN112025
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN102025
PettysvilleMICHIGAN101979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.