BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Meadowlark In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Prairie Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
157Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.00–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.00–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.30.007.0
20263.00.006.7
20272.70.006.4
20282.40.006.2
20292.20.005.9

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GuilfordILLINOIS492023
PackertownINDIANA422004
AnnatonWISCONSIN372024
Lake GalenaILLINOIS312021
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN271987
Packertown 2INDIANA262024
HolwayWISCONSIN211989
WiotaWISCONSIN212024
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN202024
MiddleburyINDIANA192024
BismarkOHIO151995
N AndoverWISCONSIN152024
HighlandWISCONSIN142024
Big RapidsMICHIGAN131990
HungerfordMICHIGAN132024
NapoleonOHIO132024
ViroquaWISCONSIN122024
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN122024
DeckervilleMICHIGAN112024
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA112024
StratfordWISCONSIN112024
OmroWISCONSIN112001
CascoWISCONSIN112024
EdenWISCONSIN112024
FestinaIOWA102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.