BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Meadowlark In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-56%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Eastern Meadowlark In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.94 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.94 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.550.001.7
20270.560.001.7
20280.560.001.7
20290.570.001.7
20300.570.001.7

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA422025
LakinKANSAS71969
WakaTEXAS62025
PantexTEXAS52025
SkellytownTEXAS52025
TwichellTEXAS52025
BrownsonNEBRASKA42025
FloydadaTEXAS42022
MiamiTEXAS32025
WallaceKANSAS22011
RuletonKANSAS22018
PaxtonNEBRASKA22009
HardestyOKLAHOMA22015
DoughertyTEXAS22022
PlymellKANSAS12021
WinonaKANSAS12000
AgateNEBRASKA11983
PostTEXAS12019
ClaytonvilleTEXAS12019
PanhandleTEXAS12025
GruverTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.