BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Meadowlark In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

-74%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Eastern Meadowlark In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±268.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±268.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±268.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.31
20270.000.000.31
20280.000.000.31
20290.000.000.31
20300.000.000.31

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA292025
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA82009
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA71997
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA22015
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.