BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Meadowlark In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGrassland birds

Eastern Meadowlark in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-88%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Meadowlark has collapsed in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Meadowlark In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±164.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±164.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Meadowlark in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±164.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.005.2
20270.000.005.2
20280.000.005.2
20290.000.005.2
20300.000.005.2

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Eastern Meadowlark in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N VictoryNEW-YORK341972
PittsfieldOHIO162024
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA151979
OgdensburgNEW-YORK142025
FowlerNEW-YORK121968
WaddingtonNEW-YORK121998
ArgyleNEW-YORK112024
GarrettsvileOHIO111991
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA112025
WatertownNEW-YORK102012
ClintonNEW-YORK102010
Valley CityOHIO102025
West BangorNEW-YORK91999
LucerneOHIO92025
MaysvilleOHIO92012
DuanesburgNEW-YORK72025
BranchportNEW-YORK72024
SheridanNEW-YORK72025
NashvilleNEW-YORK72018
PulaskiNEW-YORK72024
NaplesNEW-YORK62025
WaylandOHIO62011
HebronOHIO62025
CloverPENNSYLVANIA62025
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.