BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky Flycatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-40%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dusky Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Dusky Flycatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 384% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.02–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±229.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+384%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±229.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 384% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.02–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±229.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.720.031.4
20260.720.031.4
20270.720.031.4
20280.710.021.4
20290.710.021.4

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA191996
DirigioCALIFORNIA172014
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA152022
MccloudCALIFORNIA102021
CarrvilleCALIFORNIA61970
French GulchCALIFORNIA62010
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA52019
Lonesome RdgCALIFORNIA52014
Elk LakeOREGON42024
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA32024
Sams ValleyOREGON32013
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON32023
NeiltonWASHINGTON31975
HullvilleCALIFORNIA22019
Rio DellCALIFORNIA22001
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA21977
KorbelCALIFORNIA22001
Big FlatCALIFORNIA22014
GazelleCALIFORNIA22019
Cool CampOREGON22010
ClearwaterOREGON22021
RuchOREGON22023
SelmaOREGON22024
ProspectOREGON22002
MolallaOREGON22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.