BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky Flycatcher In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Coastal California has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-1%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dusky Flycatcher in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Dusky Flycatcher In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Coastal California is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±309.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±309.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Coastal California is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±309.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.000.53
20260.200.000.53
20270.200.000.53
20280.200.000.52
20290.200.000.52

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ValyermoCALIFORNIA142019
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA111973
Lake HemetCALIFORNIA51986
Angelus OaksCALIFORNIA51989
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA32004
WoodlandsCALIFORNIA32024
Hough SpringsCALIFORNIA32007
StonyfordCALIFORNIA32018
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA22024
Lake Hemet 2CALIFORNIA22018
Red BluffCALIFORNIA12019
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA11973
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA11996
Big BearCALIFORNIA11975
CohassetCALIFORNIA12024
OnoCALIFORNIA11997
TujungaCALIFORNIA11986
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA11998
Mt LagunaCALIFORNIA11987
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA11991
TehamaCALIFORNIA12022
Bartlett SpsCALIFORNIA12018
Cleveland NfCALIFORNIA12005
Cal Hot SpgsCALIFORNIA12017
PolomaCALIFORNIA12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.