BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky Flycatcher In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1978.

17×Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dusky Flycatcher has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Dusky Flycatcher In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.82–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.82–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.82–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.712.4
20261.60.742.4
20271.60.772.4
20281.60.792.5
20291.70.822.5

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maynard CouleeMONTANA402024
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA192018
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA182001
Moskee 3WYOMING182024
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA152013
NorbeckSOUTH-DAKOTA122001
SundanceWYOMING112024
Moskee 2WYOMING102021
MoskeeWYOMING72001
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA62024
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA52017
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA42022
Reed PointMONTANA22021
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA22021
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA22023
HighwoodMONTANA12024
LeroyMONTANA12011
JordanMONTANA12018
Two DotMONTANA12024
IngomarMONTANA12024
BrandenbergMONTANA11976
Bull Mtn.MONTANA12019
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.