BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky Flycatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

12×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
145Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dusky Flycatcher has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Dusky Flycatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.5–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.5–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.12.33.8
20263.12.33.9
20273.22.43.9
20283.22.44.0
20293.32.54.0

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcphee Res.COLORADO472024
Baxter PassCOLORADO242024
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO212024
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO212024
Lost LakeCOLORADO122024
NuclaCOLORADO122024
La SalUTAH122000
Lost Cr. ResUTAH122018
PowderhornCOLORADO112023
Douglas PassCOLORADO102024
ColonaCOLORADO102012
TincupCOLORADO102024
Marshall PasCOLORADO102008
Black Sulphur CrCOLORADO102024
BeckUTAH101987
Moon Lake 2UTAH92023
TsaileARIZONA82023
Grizzly RdgeUTAH82024
Fish Lake NfUTAH82024
Stillwater Pass 2COLORADO72024
Dolores RivCOLORADO62024
RadiumCOLORADO62013
Ant Flat-Ogden CanUTAH62023
Uintah NfUTAH61994
Wasatch NfUTAH62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.