BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Dusky Flycatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

14×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
148Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dusky Flycatcher has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Dusky Flycatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.5–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.5–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.12.33.9
20273.12.43.9
20283.22.44.0
20293.22.54.0
20303.32.54.1

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcphee Res.COLORADO432025
Haycamp MesaCOLORADO292025
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO262025
Baxter PassCOLORADO242024
Dolores RivCOLORADO182025
Blackhead PkCOLORADO162025
Fish Lake NfUTAH142025
NuclaCOLORADO132025
La SalUTAH122000
Dixie NfUTAH122025
Beck 2UTAH122025
Lost Cr. ResUTAH122018
ThomasvilleCOLORADO112025
Douglas PassCOLORADO102024
ColonaCOLORADO102012
TincupCOLORADO102025
Marshall PasCOLORADO102008
Stillwater Pass 2COLORADO102025
BeckUTAH101987
Grizzly RdgeUTAH102025
FayetteUTAH102025
Lost LakeCOLORADO92025
UncompahgreCOLORADO92025
Moon Lake 2UTAH92023
TsaileARIZONA82023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.