BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky Flycatcher In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+32%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dusky Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Dusky Flycatcher In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 4.0–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 4.0–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.93.810
20267.03.810
20277.03.910
20287.14.010
20297.24.010

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CrestviewCALIFORNIA302024
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA222017
GoumazCALIFORNIA202011
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA171994
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA132018
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA122024
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA122008
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA102024
DardanelleCALIFORNIA102019
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA71989
LumberyardCALIFORNIA72024
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA72023
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA72024
StrawberryCALIFORNIA72019
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA52023
GeneseeCALIFORNIA52024
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA52024
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA52019
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA42024
Forest Hill 2CALIFORNIA42005
WestvilleCALIFORNIA32024
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA32014
DownievilleCALIFORNIA32024
RivertonCALIFORNIA32023
Chaos CraterCALIFORNIA32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.