BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Dusky Flycatcher In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+41%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Dusky Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Dusky Flycatcher In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 4.0–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 4.0–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.93.710
20276.93.810
20287.03.910
20297.13.910
20307.14.010

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CrestviewCALIFORNIA282025
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA222017
GoumazCALIFORNIA202011
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA171994
WestvilleCALIFORNIA162025
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA132018
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA122008
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA112025
DardanelleCALIFORNIA102019
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA82025
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA71989
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA72025
StrawberryCALIFORNIA72019
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA52023
LumberyardCALIFORNIA52025
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA52025
GeneseeCALIFORNIA52024
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA52019
DownievilleCALIFORNIA42025
Forest Hill 2CALIFORNIA42005
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA32025
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA32014
RivertonCALIFORNIA32025
Chaos CraterCALIFORNIA32019
ChesterCALIFORNIA32017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.