BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Dusky Flycatcher In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Northern Rockies has surged: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+173%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
168Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dusky Flycatcher has surged in Northern Rockies: up 173% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Dusky Flycatcher In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.8–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.8–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.12.75.5
20274.12.75.5
20284.22.75.6
20294.22.85.6
20304.32.85.7

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SilviesOREGON402024
OchocoOREGON371982
Fish CreekMONTANA322024
DonnellyOREGON302006
CascadeIDAHO291984
Silver CreekOREGON242025
NezperceIDAHO192012
GraniteOREGON192025
Omak CreekWASHINGTON192024
LogdellOREGON182025
Spring LakeWASHINGTON182025
FeathervilleIDAHO172025
Fiddler LkWYOMING172025
Hash RockOREGON152025
Hunter PeakWYOMING152025
Horse CreekWYOMING152025
GoldenIDAHO142016
AlbeeOREGON142025
Sawtooth City 2IDAHO132025
WallowaOREGON132025
TroyOREGON132025
L Pend O NwrWASHINGTON132024
Crazy WomanWYOMING132024
WilsonWYOMING132025
Cape HornIDAHO122025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.