BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Dusky Flycatcher In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Dusky Flycatcher in Northern Rockies has surged: up 180% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+180%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
165Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Dusky Flycatcher has surged in Northern Rockies: up 180% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Dusky Flycatcher In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.9–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Dusky Flycatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.9–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.12.75.5
20264.22.75.6
20274.22.85.6
20284.22.85.7
20294.32.95.7

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Dusky Flycatcher in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SilviesOREGON402024
OchocoOREGON371982
LogdellOREGON342024
Fish CreekMONTANA322024
DonnellyOREGON302006
CascadeIDAHO291984
Silver CreekOREGON202024
NezperceIDAHO192012
Omak CreekWASHINGTON192024
GraniteOREGON172024
Cape HornIDAHO162024
FeathervilleIDAHO162024
DesolationOREGON162007
Hash RockOREGON152024
GoldenIDAHO142016
L Pend O NwrWASHINGTON132024
Crazy WomanWYOMING132024
CentervilleIDAHO122019
FloraOREGON122023
Mount VernonOREGON122024
Fiddler LkWYOMING122024
WilsonWYOMING112024
Sawtooth CtyIDAHO102014
Colter BayWYOMING101999
Horse CreekWYOMING102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.