BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Double-crested Cormorant In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWetland birds

Double-crested Cormorant in Northern Pacific Rainforest has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+19%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Double-crested Cormorant in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Double-crested Cormorant in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 105% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±151.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+105%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.93Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±151.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Double-crested Cormorant in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 105% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±151.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.940.003.2
20260.940.003.2
20270.930.003.2
20280.930.003.2
20290.930.003.2

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Double-crested Cormorant in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Port AngelesWASHINGTON472016
GlasgowOREGON242024
South ElmaWASHINGTON202016
HoneydewCALIFORNIA72016
Elk LakeOREGON52016
KamilcheWASHINGTON52009
RaymondWASHINGTON52005
YakutatALASKA42005
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON32024
IlwacoWASHINGTON32024
MukilteoWASHINGTON32017
DeceptionWASHINGTON31997
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA22022
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA22021
WedderburnOREGON22024
ClearwaterOREGON22002
GreenOREGON22023
OzetteWASHINGTON21986
TaholahWASHINGTON22005
Raymond 2WASHINGTON22022
HainesALASKA11975
Sheep MtnALASKA12007
HolmesCALIFORNIA11996
Fish RockCALIFORNIA12014
Rio DellCALIFORNIA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.