BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Double-crested Cormorant In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWetland birds

Double-crested Cormorant in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 139% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+139%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Double-crested Cormorant has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 139% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Double-crested Cormorant In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Double-crested Cormorant in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 76% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.01–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+76%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Double-crested Cormorant in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 76% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.01–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19852030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.550.001.1
20270.560.001.1
20280.560.001.1
20290.570.001.1
20300.570.011.1

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Double-crested Cormorant in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WakaTEXAS252010
HudsonCOLORADO122025
HookerOKLAHOMA82025
Wildhorse LCOLORADO72024
JulesburgCOLORADO72019
ArsenalCOLORADO72015
HaswellCOLORADO62006
Last ChanceCOLORADO51994
Arsenal 2COLORADO52025
NeegrandeCOLORADO42018
Fort MorganCOLORADO32021
FeltOKLAHOMA32016
StonehamCOLORADO22014
PaxtonNEBRASKA22016
KiowaCOLORADO12005
AbarrCOLORADO12005
NunnCOLORADO12018
LakinKANSAS11993
Murray LakeNEBRASKA12011
Agate 2NEBRASKA12018
PostTEXAS12017
LamesaTEXAS12022
YoderWYOMING12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.