BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Curve-billed Thrasher In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsArid-land birds

Curve-billed Thrasher in Tamaulipan Brushlands has collapsed: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-75%Since 1969
27Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Curve-billed Thrasher has collapsed in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Curve-billed Thrasher in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029
2.0Projected 2029 index
0.00–7.395% range
±25.5%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.40.007.7
20262.30.007.6
20272.20.007.5
20282.10.007.4
20292.00.007.3

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Curve-billed Thrasher in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
MillettTEXAS142012
Millett 2TEXAS132024
EncinalTEXAS122010
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS102023
GuerraTEXAS92018
Agua NuevaTEXAS82023
George WestTEXAS82024
Encinal 2TEXAS72024
RandadoTEXAS62024
Catarina 2TEXAS62017
RachalTEXAS52023
El SauzTEXAS52023
ZapataTEXAS41987
RaymondvilleTEXAS42024
Pedro CreekTEXAS42005
KingsvilleTEXAS32024
Mirando CityTEXAS32024
CatarinaTEXAS32010
DilleyTEXAS32023
SejitaTEXAS32024
La PryorTEXAS22010
Catarina 3TEXAS22024
ProgresoTEXAS21995
San YgnacioTEXAS11985
HondoTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.