BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Couch's Kingbird In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Couch's Kingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

18×Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Couch's Kingbird has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Couch's Kingbird In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Couch's Kingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.88–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Couch's Kingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.88–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.752.6
20261.70.782.6
20271.70.822.6
20281.80.852.7
20291.80.882.7

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Couch's Kingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lag AtascosaTEXAS232024
San PedroTEXAS182023
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS92023
Loyola BeachTEXAS82009
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS52024
Goliad PrairieTEXAS22009
PetronilaTEXAS12019
IndianolaTEXAS12023
KatyTEXAS12019
Bayside 2TEXAS12001
Bayside 3TEXAS12022
McfaddinTEXAS12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.