BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Couch's Kingbird In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Couch's Kingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

18×Since 1979
12Routes In Region
38Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Couch's Kingbird has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Couch's Kingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.88–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029
1.8Projected 2029 index
0.88–2.795% range
±68.3%Backtest error
19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.70.752.6
20261.70.782.6
20271.70.822.6
20281.80.852.7
20291.80.882.7

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Couch's Kingbird in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Lag AtascosaTEXAS232024
San PedroTEXAS182023
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS92023
Loyola BeachTEXAS82009
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS52024
Goliad PrairieTEXAS22009
PetronilaTEXAS12019
IndianolaTEXAS12023
KatyTEXAS12019
Bayside 2TEXAS12001
Bayside 3TEXAS12022
McfaddinTEXAS12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.