BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Couch's Kingbird In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Couch's Kingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 553% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+553%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Couch's Kingbird has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 553% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Couch's Kingbird In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Couch's Kingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 3.3–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Couch's Kingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 3.3–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.82.98.7
20275.93.08.8
20286.03.18.9
20296.13.29.0
20306.23.39.1

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Couch's Kingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RaymondvilleTEXAS152025
George WestTEXAS132025
SejitaTEXAS132024
Catarina 3TEXAS82025
KingsvilleTEXAS72024
Agua NuevaTEXAS62023
LaredoTEXAS62023
HondoTEXAS52025
HeidelbergTEXAS42024
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS42025
RachalTEXAS32025
El SauzTEXAS32023
ZapataTEXAS21987
RandadoTEXAS22025
La PryorTEXAS22010
ProgresoTEXAS22011
MillettTEXAS22009
Pedro CreekTEXAS22010
Millett 2TEXAS22024
Mirando CityTEXAS12024
EncinalTEXAS12010
San YgnacioTEXAS11982
CatarinaTEXAS12008
El IndioTEXAS12007
Catarina 2TEXAS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.