BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cooper's Hawk In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalBirds of prey

Cooper's Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-54%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cooper's Hawk has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Cooper's Hawk In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cooper's Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cooper's Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.000.35
20270.140.000.35
20280.140.000.35
20290.140.000.35
20300.130.000.34

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Cooper's Hawk in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PinetopARIZONA32022
PrescottARIZONA12022
Aztec PeakARIZONA11978
BlueARIZONA11980
PomereneARIZONA12024
San SimonARIZONA11982
Peña BlancaARIZONA12010
PatagoniaARIZONA12019
SunizonaARIZONA11992
Skull ValleyARIZONA12023
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA12025
Forest LakesARIZONA12025
Bartlett ResARIZONA12018
RedingtonARIZONA12025
Mt. GrahamARIZONA12025
AmadoARIZONA12016
SahuaritaARIZONA12017
McnealARIZONA12010
Clay SpringARIZONA12007
Carr MtnARIZONA12025
PortalARIZONA12025
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA12025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12022
DragoonARIZONA12001
RuckerARIZONA12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.