BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cooper's Hawk In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaBirds of prey

Cooper's Hawk in Coastal California has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+63%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cooper's Hawk has risen sharply in Coastal California: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cooper's Hawk In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cooper's Hawk in Coastal California is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.10–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cooper's Hawk in Coastal California is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.10–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.250.090.40
20270.250.100.40
20280.250.100.40
20290.250.100.41
20300.260.100.41

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Cooper's Hawk in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sawmill MtnCALIFORNIA41993
MorenoCALIFORNIA32025
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA32011
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA22013
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA22016
ArvinCALIFORNIA22013
JacksonCALIFORNIA21984
ReddingCALIFORNIA21977
CoyoteCALIFORNIA22023
CopperopolisCALIFORNIA22014
Waterman GapCALIFORNIA22025
Cleveland NfCALIFORNIA21996
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA22009
Harbor Lake 2CALIFORNIA22024
AlamarCALIFORNIA22000
Jofegan 2CALIFORNIA22024
Red BluffCALIFORNIA12021
PenningtonCALIFORNIA11978
RumseyCALIFORNIA12008
HughsonCALIFORNIA12025
CaruthersCALIFORNIA11984
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA11974
GravesboroCALIFORNIA11977
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA11980
ParkfieldCALIFORNIA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.