BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cooper's Hawk In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainBirds of prey

Cooper's Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 327% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+327%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cooper's Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Cooper's Hawk In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cooper's Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.07–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cooper's Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.07–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.060.24
20270.150.070.24
20280.150.070.24
20290.160.070.24
20300.160.070.24

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Cooper's Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BranchportNEW-YORK22016
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK22024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12016
HighlandNEW-YORK12012
W ShokanNEW-YORK12006
AusterlitzNEW-YORK12001
CatskillsNEW-YORK12015
GhentNEW-YORK12021
DuanesburgNEW-YORK11994
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK12016
CayugaNEW-YORK12015
RomulusNEW-YORK11993
MacdougallNEW-YORK12023
TrumansburgNEW-YORK12024
OrleansNEW-YORK12007
RushvilleNEW-YORK12008
Canadice LNEW-YORK12022
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK12015
HamburgNEW-YORK12018
West SenecaNEW-YORK11996
CastileNEW-YORK11993
RandolphNEW-YORK12006
Cherry HillNEW-YORK12016
NashvilleNEW-YORK12003
E YoungstownNEW-YORK12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.