BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cooper's Hawk In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Cooper's Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 294% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+294%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cooper's Hawk has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 294% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cooper's Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.07–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cooper's Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.07–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.060.23
20260.150.060.24
20270.150.070.24
20280.150.070.24
20290.160.070.24

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Cooper's Hawk in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BranchportNEW-YORK22016
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK22024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12016
HighlandNEW-YORK12012
W ShokanNEW-YORK12006
AusterlitzNEW-YORK12001
CatskillsNEW-YORK12015
GhentNEW-YORK12021
DuanesburgNEW-YORK11994
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK12016
CayugaNEW-YORK12015
RomulusNEW-YORK11993
MacdougallNEW-YORK12023
TrumansburgNEW-YORK12024
OrleansNEW-YORK12007
RushvilleNEW-YORK12008
Canadice LNEW-YORK12022
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK12015
HamburgNEW-YORK12018
West SenecaNEW-YORK11996
CastileNEW-YORK11993
RandolphNEW-YORK12006
Cherry HillNEW-YORK12016
NashvilleNEW-YORK12003
E YoungstownNEW-YORK12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.