BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Yellowthroat In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+200%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Yellowthroat has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Yellowthroat In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.6 (95% range 2.2–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±103.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.6 (95% range 2.2–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±103.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.31.913
20267.42.013
20277.52.013
20287.52.113
20297.62.213

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA972011
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA772011
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA682024
Forked IslandLOUISIANA472024
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA232017
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA172024
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA152008
KaplanLOUISIANA102023
LafitteLOUISIANA81991
Grand IsleLOUISIANA82019
WinnieTEXAS82024
JuniorLOUISIANA51991
HackberryLOUISIANA52016
EstherLOUISIANA52024
BaysideTEXAS52010
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA41976
WoodlawnLOUISIANA42021
Port AcresTEXAS42024
San PedroTEXAS42014
GlencoeLOUISIANA32018
MauriceLOUISIANA32024
MamouLOUISIANA21982
ChinquapinTEXAS22024
Bayside 3TEXAS22019
Padre Island PaisTEXAS22015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.