BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Yellowthroat In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 298% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+298%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Yellowthroat has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 298% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Common Yellowthroat In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 0.53 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.11–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±184%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±184%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 0.53 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.11–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±184%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.430.100.77
20270.430.100.77
20280.440.100.77
20290.440.110.77
20300.440.110.78

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO152025
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS142009
Dove Mtn.TEXAS132006
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO72019
Red RockNEW-MEXICO32025
MesillaNEW-MEXICO32000
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO21977
RodeoNEW-MEXICO21994
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO22003
PresidioTEXAS22010
JornadaNEW-MEXICO11988
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12017
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO11996
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO12023
Black GapTEXAS12023
Casa PiedraTEXAS12008
CastolonTEXAS12013
Coyanda DrawTEXAS12023
Sierra BlancTEXAS12023
CanutilloTEXAS12022
Van HornTEXAS12019
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS12025
Chisos BasinTEXAS12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.