BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Yellowthroat In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

12×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Yellowthroat has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Common Yellowthroat In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 78% by 2030 — from 0.75 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.29–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+78%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 78% by 2030 — from 0.75 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.29–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.252.4
20271.30.262.4
20281.30.272.4
20291.30.282.4
20301.30.292.4

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA152018
ArabyARIZONA122023
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA122010
LagunaARIZONA72023
NilandCALIFORNIA72025
Cutter 2ARIZONA62018
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA52025
GlamisCALIFORNIA41977
BlytheCALIFORNIA41979
PearblossomCALIFORNIA32025
FlorenceARIZONA21988
DatelandARIZONA22015
Cibola LakeARIZONA22024
Red Rock 2ARIZONA22019
OnyxCALIFORNIA22001
Calif CityCALIFORNIA21980
Parker DamCALIFORNIA22007
BeattyNEVADA22025
Palo VerdeARIZONA12013
Red RockARIZONA12006
Casa GrandeARIZONA12019
Cactus ForestARIZONA12025
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA12025
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA11995
Lucerne ValCALIFORNIA11977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.