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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Yellowthroat In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Yellowthroat has fallen sharply in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Yellowthroat In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 58% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.30.106.4
20273.10.006.2
20282.90.006.1
20292.70.005.9
20302.60.005.7

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DeventerMISSOURI302025
CarlisleLOUISIANA291988
Morgan CityLOUISIANA262022
KraemerLOUISIANA232025
FreetownLOUISIANA222019
CommerceMISSISSIPPI171993
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE172025
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI152025
BardwellKENTUCKY142003
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY142025
BrousvilleLOUISIANA142025
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA142025
TchulaMISSISSIPPI121975
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI112025
AugustaARKANSAS72001
KeystoneLOUISIANA72013
PawpawTENNESSEE72012
EudoraARKANSAS62025
HughesARKANSAS62025
ShawLOUISIANA62024
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA62025
Port AllenLOUISIANA62024
TippoMISSISSIPPI62025
BlodgettMISSOURI62025
RamahLOUISIANA52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.