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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Yellowthroat In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-54%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Yellowthroat has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Yellowthroat In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.0–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.0–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.31.25.4
20263.31.15.4
20273.21.15.3
20283.21.15.3
20293.11.05.2

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Four LakesARKANSAS492001
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA222023
Dry Fork 2ARKANSAS142024
DerryLOUISIANA141989
PoyenARKANSAS132007
HollywoodARKANSAS132024
Princeton 2ARKANSAS132022
CypressLOUISIANA131982
Mer RougeLOUISIANA112008
OakdaleLOUISIANA111994
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA112021
Locust BayouARKANSAS102023
Ivan 2LOUISIANA102016
ManyLOUISIANA91992
BlakelyARKANSAS81999
CartervilleLOUISIANA81992
Flat CreekLOUISIANA82024
Pine PrairieLOUISIANA81997
GraysonLOUISIANA82021
BethelOKLAHOMA82024
CrowsARKANSAS71991
HavanaARKANSAS72021
Dry ForkARKANSAS72023
EastonLOUISIANA71990
GoodwillLOUISIANA72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.